Wednesday, 17 August 2011

The (f)laws of economics

There was a period just after the credit crisis and recession in 2008 when it looked like we were going to look at the roots of our thinking on economics and especially economic policy anew. Having seen the abject failure of macroeconomics to predict the crisis, many thought that it would be a new dawn. Would that it were so.

Over the past year it feels as if we're back in the pre-crisis era, where the markets get to tell the government what to do and many sage heads with impressive titles like Chief Economist to the Uber Bank appear on news programmes and pat us all on the head, telling us to leave it to them as it's just too complicated for us to understand.

But this all does not get us away from the main problem - economics is not a science. Many other commentators have waded into this territory before (for example John Kay) and there is some outstanding academic work on the historical roots of economics in physics (the most notable being Philip Mirowski and his book More Heat Than Light), so there is little point in me trying to replay most of the arguments. 

However, as we are told that austerity is the way forward, that we will create new jobs in enterprise zones and there is no point in trying to raise the top rate of income tax (even though the sage of Omaha Warren Buffett has ridiculed this position beautifully) it seems that we cannot shake off the hands of living let alone dead economists. 

So two things to ask your local friendly (?) economist, or politician if you prefer. What exactly is growth, as money has separated from the physical economy, and when you say something is an economic law what do you actually mean? Is it like a law of the natural world, let's take gravity for instance? Or is it something you want to be true to make your world view hold together?

Not that I'm taking sides or anything ....

One last note, for those interested in new thinking in economics it is worth taking a look at the Soros funded Institute for New Economic Thinking

Best

Finbarr

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