Process stories, process stories

As the results of the local elections across the UK start to come in the next wave of frustrating reporting has started. It is true that the Lib Dems are getting beaten up quite badly currently down 336 councilors in England alone according to the BBC. However, the process stories of what went wrong and the continuing characterisation as this being highly personal to Nick Clegg are frustrating.

Without access to internal polling or YouGov numbers, what appears to be happening? The Conservative vote is the same. They should not be so smug, they have a solid voting group but that's not increasing. The Lid Dem vote has shattered, with those who came to them from Labour in the last election going back, those who feel betrayed by the coalition move going to other parties such as the Greens, some Lib Dem voters who are almost Tory going over the line and a core group of Lib Dem's staying with them.

Would this carry over to a Parliamentary election? Given the mood of the country probably. Are the Lib Dems now a spent force in national politics? It is difficult to see how they might come back. Unless ...

One scenario for the Lib Dems to stop the bleeding might be a leadership challenge from Chris Huhne followed by a no confidence vote in the Commons and return to the polls. Would there be enough votes to bring down the coalition? Assuming all Tories vote to remain in power (305) and all others beyond the Lib Dems vote for a new parliament, the Tories would need 21 of 57 Lib Dems to stay the course. How likely is that right now?

Although having said that are Labour too comfortable in opposition? Would they want to take over right now? Probably not.

It seems we might be stuck here for a while ...

Best

Finbarr