Don't believe the hype

It's an old problem but one that is very dangerous in times like these. You see it in headlines all the time ... "World to end" and the story clarifies that it will happen sometime in the next 10 billion years. Don't let the facts get in the way of a good headline ...

An example of this from the BBC this morning reporting on the release of an NIESR report the headline reads

UK recession worst since 1930s

At this point I'm already crying into my breakfast, but solace is at hand. Actually reading the article reveals that the NIESR report is predicting that the economy will shrink by 4.3% this year, which would be greater than the contraction in the 1930s. The really important word there is PREDICTING. Yes, that great science that missed the largest credit crisis, the imminent collapse of the banking system, is predicting a sharp contraction and the BBC reports this as if it has already happened.

At times like these the last thing we need is useless reporting of traditional economic analysis. Let's all get a little smarter please.

F